Warbixinta billaha ee dhaqaalaha guud ee Afrika

Monthly developments in the macroeconomic Africa . JULY 2025

Warbixinta billaha dhaqaalaha guud ee afrika .

Warbixintaan billeed ee ku saabsan dhaqaalaha guud ee Afrika waa warbixin joogto ah oo bil kasta ay soo saarto waaxda cilmi-baarista ee Afreximbank Research. Warbixintaan waxa ay diiradda saareysaa dhacdooyinkii ugu waaweynaa ee ka dhacay bishii ugu dambeysay ee JULY 2025. Waxa ay si kooban u soo bandhigeysaa dhacdooyinkaas muhiimka ah ee saameynta ku yeeshay xaaladda dhaqaalaha guud ee qaaradda Afrika.

Warbixintu waa mid dheer oo dhinacyo badan taabaneysa, iyadoo isku xiriirineysa fahamka guud ee dhaqaalaha caalamka iyo midka Afrika, iyo sida ay isugu saameeyaan arrimahaas kala duwan. Qaybaha ugu waaweyn ee warbixinta waxaa ka mid ah:

 Soo koobid heer sare ah (Executive Summary) oo ku saabsan xaaladda dhaqaale ee caalamka iyo Afrika. 
 Aragtida guud ee dhaqaalaha adduunka (Global Economic Outlook).
Xiisadaha juqraafi siyaasadeed ee Afrika oo weli saameyn ku leh siyaasadda iyo go’aamada dhaqaale.
Aragtida dhaqaale ee Afrika (Africa's Economic Outlook).

Qoraalkan ma awoodo inuu si qoto dheer u sharxo dhammaan qodobadaas, balse wuxuu diiradda saari doonaa kuwa ugu muhiimsan ee saameyn leh, u baahan in la fahmo, ama khuseeya dalkeena Soomaaliya, gaar ahaan wixii warbixintan lagaga xusay Soomaaliya.

Warbixintani waxa ay noqonaysaa tii labaad ee aan ka diyaariyo warbixinta billeed ee Afreximbank, anigoo soo jeedinaya faahfaahin kooban oo si sahlan loo fahmi karo.

Executive summary. African Environment.

Trade tensions.

Xiisadaha Ganacsi ee Caalamka (Trade Tensions) oo Saameynaya Koboca Dhaqaale ee Afrika

Xiisadaha sii kordhaya ee ganacsiga caalamka (rising global trade tensions) ayaa cadaadis saaraya kobaca dhaqaale ee Afrika ee muddada dhexe (medium-term growth outlook), iyagoo wiiqaya baahida dibadda (external demand), carqaladeynaya silsiladaha sahayda (supply chains), islamarkaana kordhinaya kharashaadka ganacsiga (trade costs). Tani waxay keeni kartaa hoos u dhac ku yimaada dakhliga dhoofinta (export revenues), gaar ahaan waddamada ku tiirsan badeecooyinka dabiiciga ah (commodity-dependent countries), taasoo sii adkeyn karta culayska akoonnada lacagta qalaad (current account pressures) ee waddamada aadka u soo dhoofsada (highly import-dependent economies), kuwaasoo aan haysan kayd ku filan (low reserves).

Sidoo kale, hubanti la’aanta ka dhalata xiisadahaan waxay caqabad ku noqon kartaa maalgashiga (investment), waxayna dib u dhigi kartaa horumarka lagu sameynayo silsiladaha qiimaha gudaha (regional value chains) iyo ganacsiga u dhaxeeya dalalka Afrika ee hoos imanaya heshiiska AfCFTA (intra-African trade under AfCFTA).

Si looga hortago halistaas, waxaa lagama maarmaan ah in la dardargeliyo kala-duwanaanta ganacsiga (trade diversification), kor loo qaado tartanka dhoofinta (export competitiveness), lana dhiso hannaan adag oo difaac u noqda dhaqaalaha (robust macroeconomic buffers), sida keydka lacagta qalaad iyo siyaasado xasiloon oo dhaqaale.

Commodity Prices

Hoos u dhaca Qiimaha Badeecooyinka Caalamka (Commodity Prices) oo Halis ku ah Xasilinta Maaliyadda Afrika

Hoos u dhaca ku yimid qiimaha badeecooyinka caalamka (falling global commodity prices) ayaa wiiqi kara dadaallada lagu xoojinayo xasilinta miisaaniyadda (fiscal consolidation efforts) ee qaaradda Afrika. Tani waxay sidoo kale adkeyn kartaa maaraynta iyo joogtaynta deymaha qaaradda (debt sustainability), iyadoo si gaar ah u saameyneysa dalalka dakhliga badan ka hela dhoofinta badeecooyinka dabiiciga ah.

Waxaa muhiim ah in dowladuhu ay qaadaan tallaabooyin istiraatiiji ah si loo yareeyo saameynta qiimaha suuqyada caalamiga ah, lana dhiso ilo dhaqaale oo kala duwan oo ka madax-bannaan kacsanaanta suuqyada badeecooyinka.

Global Economic Outlook.

1-     Growth

Hoos u Dhaca Kobaca Dhaqaalaha Caalamka (Global Growth) oo Keeni Kara Culeysyo Dheeraad ah

Bangiga Adduunka (World Bank) ayaa dib u eegis ku sameeyay saadaashiisa kobaca GDP-ga caalamiga ah (global GDP growth forecast), wuxuuna hadda filayaa inuu kor u kaco oo kaliya 2.3% sanadkaan. Haddii ay sidaasi dhacdo, waxay noqon doontaa heerka ugu hooseeya ee kobaca sanadlaha ah (lowest annual growth rate) tan iyo 2008, marka laga reebo xilliyada uu dhacay qalalaasaha dhaqaale ee weyn (global recession).

 Sidoo kale, Ururka Iskaashiga Dhaqaalaha iyo Horumarinta (OECD) ayaa hoos u dhigay saadaasha kobaca dhaqaale ee caalamka (global growth projections), wuxuuna sheegay inay noqon doonto 2.9% sannadaha 2025 iyo 2026. Waxa uu sabab uga dhigay kororka caqabadaha ganacsi (rising trade barriers), hubanti la’aanta siyaasadeed (policy uncertainty), iyo sicir-bararka weli taagan (persistent inflation).

OECD sidoo kale waxay tilmaantay kororka khataraha maaliyadeed iyo miisaaniyadeed (fiscal and financial risks), gaar ahaan waddamada soo koraya ee culayska weyn ka saaran yahay deymaha (developing economies burdened by debt).

Waxaa lagama maarmaan ah in dalalka soo koraya ay xoojiyaan xasilloonida dhaqaalahooda, yaraynaayaan ku tiirsanaanta deymo badan, islamarkaana kordhiyaan ilo dakhli oo waara.

2-     Inflation

Sicir-bararka Caalamka (Inflation)

Sida lagu sheegay saadaasha cusub ee uu soo saaray Sanduuqa Lacagta Adduunka (IMF estimates) bishii Abriil 2025, sicir-bararka guud ee caalamka (global headline inflation) ayaa la filayaa inuu hoos u dhaco, balse si ka gaabis ah marka la barbar dhigo filashadii bishii Janaayo.

Waxaa la filayaa in heerka sicir-bararka uu noqdo 4.3% sanadka 2025 iyo 3.6% sanadka 2026. Saadaasha cusub waxay muujineysaa dib u eegis kor u kac ah (upward revisions) ee sicir-bararka wadamada dhaqaalahoodu horumarsan yahay (advanced economies), halka wadamada suuqyada soo baxaya iyo kuwa soo koraya (emerging market and developing economies) laga sameeyay hoos u dhig yar (slight downward revisions) ee saadaasha sicir-bararka sanadka 2025.

Hoos u dhaca sicir-bararka ayaa muhiim u ah xasilinta siyaasadaha lacageed iyo yareynta cadaadiska nolosha, gaar ahaan dalalka saboolka ah ee ay dadkoodu si toos ah u dareemaan sicir-bararka baahsan.

3-     Monetary policy

Siyaasadda Lacageed (Monetary Policy)

Bangiyada dhexe (central banks) ayaa la filayaa inay taxaddar dheeraad ah muujiyaan iyaga oo sii wadaya inay la tacaalaan xaaladda dhaqaale ee adag (complex economic environment) ee ay calaamadeeyeen xiisadaha ganacsi (trade tensions) iyo hubanti la’aanta arrimaha juquraafi-siyaasadeed (geopolitical uncertainties).

Siyaasaddooda lacageed waxay noqon doontaa mid si taxaddar leh loo miisaamo, si loo ilaaliyo xasilloonida dhaqaalaha iyadoo aan la dhibaateyn kobaca dhaqaale ama la kordhin khataraha sicir-bararka.

4-    Trade

Ganacsiga Caalamka (Trade) oo Saadaashiisa Hoos Loo Dhigay

Saadaasha mugga ganacsiga caalamka (world trade volume estimates) ee sannadaha 2025 iyo 2026 ayaa si yar hoos loogu eegay (revised downward), sida lagu sheegay warbixinaha ugu dambeeyay.

Dib-u-eegistaas hoos u dhaca ah waxay ka dhalatay kororka weyn ee hubanti la’aanta siyaasadaha ganacsiyeed (sharp increase in trade policy uncertainty), taasoo la filaayo inay si gaar ah u saameyso shirkadaha ku tiirsan ganacsiga xad-dhaafka ah (trade-intensive firms), iyadoo hoos u dhigeysa heerka maalgashiga (investment).

Tani waxay calaamad u tahay caqabado hor leh oo heysta kobaca ganacsiga caalamka, taasoo dalalka soo koraya ku qasbi karta inay sameeyaan isbeddello istiraatiiji ah oo lagu xoojinayo isku filnaanshaha dhaqaale.

Africa`s Economic Outlook.

1-     Growth

Kobaca Dhaqaalaha Afrika (Growth)

Saadaasha kobaca dhaqaalaha Afrika (Africa’s growth outlook) ayaa dib hoos loogu eegay, iyadoo hadda lagu qiyaasayo 3.9% sanadka 2025 iyo 4.0% sanadka 2026. Hoos u dhacaas ayaa ka tarjumaya saameynta weli taagan ee dharbaaxyada dibadda (persistent external shocks) iyo hubanti la’aanta sii kordheysa ee caalamka oo ay sabab u yihiin canshuuraha ganacsiyeed (rising global uncertainty driven by tariffs).

Inkasta oo hoos u dhacaasi yahay mid yar (modest downgrade), haddana 21 dal oo Afrikaan ah ayaa weli la filayaa inay gaaraan koboc dhaqaale oo ka badan 5% sanadka 2025.

Isbeddelada lagu sameynaayo dhaqaalaha (economic reforms), kala-duwanaanta ilaha dakhliga (diversification), iyo maaraynta wanaagsan ee siyaasadaha guud ee dhaqaalaha (better macro management) ayaa ah arrimaha muhiimka ah ee xoojinaya adkaysiga qaaradda, si ay ula tacaasho dharbaaxyada caalamiga ah oo ay u sii wado kobaca.

2-     Inflation

Sicir-bararka Afrika (Inflation) oo hoos u dhacaya Markii ugu Horreysay tan iyo Xilliggii cudurka faafa

Sicir-bararka celcelis ahaan ee Afrika (average inflation in Africa) ayaa la saadaalinayaa inuu hoos ugu dhaco 13.8% sanadka 2025 iyo 9.9% sanadka 2026. Tani waxay noqon doontaa markii ugu horreysay ee heerka sicir-bararka uu gaaro hal-god (single digits) tan iyo intii uu jiray xilliggii cudurka faafa (since the pandemic).

Hoos u dhaca cadaadiska sicir-bararka (easing inflationary pressures) waxaa ugu weyn sabab u ah kororka sahayda cuntada (improved food supply), gaar ahaan waddamada horey u saameeyeen masiibooyinka cimilada la xiriira (climate-related shocks) sida abaaraha iyo fatahaadaha dhacay sanadka 2024.

Tani waxay fursad u tahay dalalka Afrika in ay dardargeliyaan xasillinta qiimaha nolosha iyo horumarinta awoodda wax iibsiga ee shacabka.

3-    Trade

Ganacsiga Afrika (Trade) oo waji cusub Galaya, Iyadoo kordhaysa deynta Koontada hadda jirta

Deficit-ka koontada hadda jirta ee Afrika (Africa’s average current account deficit) ayaa la saadaalinayaa inuu kordho, laga bilaabo 1.8% GDP-ga sanadka 2024 una kaco 2.6% inta u dhaxaysa 2025 ilaa 2026.

Kordhadan hoos u dhaca ah (deterioration) waxaa horseedaya koboca farqiga ka dhexeeya wax dhoofinta iyo wax soo dejinta (broader trade deficit), taasoo ka dhalanaysa hoos u dhac la filaayo inuu ku yimaado baahida loo qabo badeecooyinka Afrika laga dhoofiyo (declines in export demand), sababo la xiriira tabar-darrada kobaca dhaqaalaha caalamka (weakening global economy).

Tani waxay u baahan tahay in Afrika ay xoogga saarto horumarinta wax-soo-saarka gudaha, xoojinta dhoofinta, iyo yareynta ku tiirsanaanta badeecooyinka dibadda laga keeno.

SOMALIA. KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS .

Tilmaamayaasha Muhiimka ah ee Dhaqaalaha (Key Macroeconomic Indicators)

 Dhaqaalaha ayaa la filayaa inuu koro 3.9% sanadka 2025 iyo 4.0% sanadka 2026. Kobacaan waxaa horseedaya wax-soo-saarka beeraha (agriculture), roobab wacan (favorable rains), isticmaal xooggan oo ka imaanaya qoysaska (strong household consumption), iyo maalgeshi kor u kacaya oo ka imaanaya labada dhinac ee gaarka loo leeyahay iyo dowladda (increased investments from both the private and public sectors).

Sarrifka lacagta (exchange rate) kama uusan leexan doolarka Mareykanka, taasoo muujineysa xasillooni lacageed. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, wadarta guud ee ganacsiga (total trade) ayaa hoos ugu dhacay 3.305% marka la barbar dhigo sanadkii hore, taasoo muujineysa caqabado la xiriira kobaca ganacsiga dibadda.

Recommendations

1-   1-  Strengthen domestic resilience and Economic Diversification

Xoojinta Adkeysiga Gudaha iyo Kala-duwanaanta Dhaqaalaha (Economic Diversification):

Dowladaha Afrika waxaa lagu dhiirrigelinayaa inay dedejiyaan hannaan warshadeyn (industrialization) oo wax-ku-ool ah, si loo yareeyo ku tiirsanaanta dhoofinta kheyraadka dabiiciga ah (commodity exports). Waxaa la tixgelinayaa in la xoojiyo wax-soo-saarka qiime-dheer (value-added manufacturing), kobcinta dhaqaalaha digital-ka ah (digital economies), iyo adeegyada kale ee horumarineed. Sidoo kale, waxaa muhiim ah in la hormariyo wax-soo-saarka beeraha (agricultural productivity) iyo farsamaynta wax-soo-saarkaasi (agro-processing), taasoo kor u qaadeysa amniga cuntada (food security), hoos u dhigeysa ku-tiirsanaanta wax-soo-dejinta, isla markaana abuuraysa shaqooyin cusub.

2-    2- Xoojinta Isdhexgalka Gobolka( deepen Regional Integration):

Waxaa lagama maarmaan ah in si buuxda loo kaashado fursadaha uu bixinayo Heshiiska Suuqa Xorta Afrika (AfCFTA) si loo kordhiyo ganacsiga gudaha Afrika (intra-African trade), loo adkeeyo silsiladaha sahayda (supply chain resilience), loona ballaariyo suuqyada ganacsiga ee ganacsiyada yar-yar iyo kuwa dhexe (SMEs). Waxa kale oo muhiim ah in la maalgeliyo kaabayaal isku xira dalalka (cross-border infrastructure) sida gaadiidka, korontada, iyo isku-xirka digitalka, si loo kobciyo qulqulka maalgelinta iyo ganacsiga ee gobolka.

333-   Hagaajinta Maareynta Miisaaniyadda iyo Deymaha

(Enhance Fiscal and Debt Management):

Waxaa lagula talinayaa dalalka inay xoogga saaraan ururinta kheyraadka gudaha (domestic resource mobilization) iyagoo adeegsanaya nidaam cashuureed hufan (efficient tax systems), ballaarinta saldhigga cashuuraha (broader tax bases), iyo joojinta qulqulka dhaqaalaha sharci-darrada ah (illicit financial flows). Waxaa kaloo lagama maarmaan ah in la hirgaliyo qaab-dhismeed maamul-deyn hufan (transparent debt management frameworks), lana qaato istaraatijiyado deyn oo dhexdhexaad ah (medium-term debt strategies). Dalalka waxaa lagu dhiirrigelinayaa inay la xaajoodaan hay’adaha caalamiga ah si deynta aan la maareyn karin loogu beddelo heshiisyo cadaalad ah (debt restructuring/refinancing), ama looga faa’iideysto beddelka deyn horumarineed (debt-for-development swaps).

4-     4- Daryeelka Xasilloonida Lacagta iyo Maaliyadda

(safeguard Monetary and Financial Stability):

Bangiyada dhexe waa inay si taxaddar leh u maareeyaan siyaasadaha lacageed (monetary policies), si ay u xakameeyaan sicir-bararka (inflation control) iyadoo aan laga leexin kororka dhaqaalaha (growth support), gaar ahaan xilli heerarka dulsaarka adduunka ay is-bedbedelayaan. Waxaa sidoo kale muhiim ah, in la xoojiyo korjoogteynta maaliyadeed (financial supervision) si looga hortago khataraha nidaamka (systemic risks) iyo in la taageero helitaanka amaahda (credit access) ee ganacsiyada wax-soo-saar leh, gaar ahaan kuwa yaryar (SMEs) iyo maalgelinta cagaaran (green investments).

5-   5-   Maalgelinta Awooda Aadanaha iyo Isu-diyaarinta Cimilada

(investment in Human Capital and Climate Resilience):

In kor loo qaado maalgelinta waxbarashada, caafimaadka, iyo horumarinta xirfadaha (skills development) si awoodda shaqaalaha loola jaanqaado baahiyaha mustaqbalka ee kobaca dhaqaalaha. Waa in isbeddelka cimilada (climate adaptation and mitigation) si buuxda loogu daro qorsheyaasha qaran si looga hortago dhibaatooyinka cimilada, loona xaqiijiyo koboc waara (long-term sustainability).

6-     6- Horumarinta Hay’adaha iyo Kalsoonida Siyaasadda

(promote Institutional Reform and Policy Credibility): 

Waxaa lagama maarmaan ah in la xoojiyo maamul wanaagga (good governance), hufnaanta xogta (data transparency), iyo sharciyeynta la saadaalin karo (regulatory predictability) si loo helo kalsoonida maalgeliyeyaasha (investor confidence) loona kordhiyo waxtarka siyaasadaha. Waxaa kaloo muhiim ah in la dhiso awoodaha hay’adaha si loo gaaro go’aano ku saleysan caddeyn (evidence-based policymaking), lagana falceliyo si degdeg ah marka ay yimaadaan dhibaatooyin dibadda ah (external shocks).

Waxaa intaas iga eg macluumaadkii ugu muhiimsanaa ee ku jiray Warbixinta Billaha ee Dhaqaalaha Guud ee Afrika oo aan idiin soo diyaariyey.

Waxaan aaminsanahay qofkii si wanaagsan u akhriya qoraalkan uu si qoto dheer u fahmi doono xaaladda guud ee dhaqaalaha Afrika iyo heerka uu haatan marayo.

Intaa ka dib, waxaa ballan inoo ah warbixinta bisha August haddii Eebbe idmo.

Mahadsanid akhrintaada qiimaha badan.

Qoraalkan waxaa diyaariyey Agaasimaha Mareegta Keyd, Mudane Axmed Carab